The Effect of Real GDP on Interest Rate | Bizfluent
Causality relationship; findings indicated that inflation causes interest rate. On the other The relationship between GDP and economic growth rate. - The Effect. The study further shows that there is negative relation between GDP and interest rate and positive relationship between inflation and GDP of India during study. Inflation and interest rates are often linked, and frequently referenced in macroeconomics. The Delicate Dance of Inflation and GDP.
What Is The Relationship Between Interest Rates, Growth, And Inflation?
As you probably noticed in the chart above, though, swings in nominal GDP tend to be much larger than swings in interest rates. If we smooth out these changes in GDP over a 5-year period, the correlation between the two variables moves up to 0. So there appears to be a strong relationship between the average nominal GDP over the past 5 years and the current level of interest rates.
Because of varying changes in inflation, which may rise more detracting from real growth or less adding to real growth than the increase in nominal GDP. When we average inflation over a 5-year period, the correlation moves up to 0.
So, what does a rising year yield in tell us?
Finance: Chapter Effect of a Real GDP Increase (i.e., Economic Growth) on Interest Rates
That the odds favor an increase in nominal GDP and an increase in inflation. We can hope that the increase in nominal GDP will outpace any increase in inflation, thereby adding to real economic output. But based on the rise in interest rates alone we cannot make such a forecast. Follow Charlie Bilello and get email alerts Your feedback matters to us! Want to share your opinion on this article?
Disagree with this article? The relationship between economic growth and interest rates remains another debatable issue during the last decade across the globe.
By and large when interest rates are augmented, consumers have a tendency to have less money to expend because of savings money. In the midst of less expending, the economy sluggish and then inflation reduces.
Again, when interest rates are lesser, consumers have a tendency to have more money to expend. In the midst of more spending, the economy slows and then inflation increases. McKinnon [ 18 ] and Shaw [ 26 ] stated that higher real interest rates bring about higher levels of savings that consecutively encourage economic growth. But Barro and Becker [ 3 ] considering discounting factor in their model and confirmed that real interest rates and economic growth are negatively associated. The economic growth process controls though multiplier upshot of consumption as well as accelerator upshot of investment.
Inflation unswervingly influences the non-refundable income of households that repeatedly harmfully influences both consumption and savings or investment.
The Effect of Real GDP on Interest Rate
However higher interest rate is likely to inspire savings, although augmented cost of credit dampens investment. Ultimately inflation persuaded decrease in non-refundable income does not go away households with the equal additional returns to set aside [ 22 ].
The latest investment decelerate has flashed a strong debate in India concerning the function of interest rates. Economists usually quarrel that real interest rates have been low down, even if nominal rates have slowly increased after the global crises.
Alternatively, a few spokespersons of the business society uphold that lofty nominal lending rates of interest have played a significant role in the present investment crash. Needless to say, the two assemblies have quarrelled for diverse financial policy acts to react to the present condition [ 1 ].
The Reserve Bank of India RBI does not unswervingly manage the rates of interest however usually a tighter financial policy causes higher rates of interest. Consequently how do rates of interest influence the movement of inflation? Higher rates of interest put less using control in the hands of consumers business. Accordingly consumers expend less; the demand sluggish down, by this means controlling inflation. If the RBI makes a decision that the economy is decelerating - so as to demand is decelerating -at that moment it can decrease rates of interest, raising the cash amount inflowing the economy [ 13 ].
What about the current condition of Indian economy in terms of interest rate and inflation? The worldwide financial activities have sluggish and risks linger lofty, in recent times due to uncertainty over policies of wide-ranging central banks. In India, macroeconomic situations hang about feeble, together with supply limitations, monotonous domestic demand and fragile investment outlook. A yearly rate of inflation based on wholesale price index has been presently demonstrating a descending trend.
In addition the international gold prices are decreasing. These offer Reserve Bank of India a space to inconsiderate the rate of interest to flourish economic growth. Because of the extraordinary economic growth of India over the current years compared to other countries, augment in foreign currency inflow caused the demand in multiples in India.
Inflation has restrained while proposed though the rupee depreciation as well as discrepancies in the commodity markets pretence a huge challenge [ 12 ]. Keeping in view of the above, this study examines how interest rates and inflation are related to economic growth in India.