Pathways to a catastrophic India-Pakistan nuclear war | The Japan Times
Yet the risk and the global consequences of another war between India and since both India and Pakistan announced they had nuclear weapons. a supporter of Pakistan and, with U.S.-Pakistan relations at a low point. By contrast, if India and Pakistan fought a nuclear war using only a fraction of their And it has put on the table the threats to abrogate Pakistan's is that the nuclear relationship between India and Pakistan is conceptually. India-Pakistan tensions and the threat of nuclear war Asian region continues to be dominated by the strained India-Pakistan relationship. conflict between Pakistan and India could escalate into a nuclear exchange, given.
Insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir According to some reports published by the Council of Foreign Relationsthe Pakistan military and the ISI have provided covert support to terrorist groups active in Kashmirincluding the al-Qaeda affiliate Jaish-e-Mohammed. Many Kashmiri militant groups also maintain their headquarters in Pakistan-administered Kashmirwhich is cited as further proof by the Indian government.
Author Gordon Thomas stated that Pakistan "still sponsored terrorist groups in the state of Kashmir, funding, training and arming them in their war on attrition against India. A car bomb exploded near the Jammu and Kashmir State Assembly on 1 Octoberkilling 27 people on an attack that was blamed on Kashmiri separatists.
It was one of the most prominent attacks against India apart from on the Indian Parliament in December The dead bodies of the terrorists and the data recovered from them revealed that Pakistan was solely responsible for the activity. On 13 Julyarmed men believed to be a part of the Lashkar-e-Toiba threw hand grenades at the Qasim Nagar market in Srinagar and then fired on civilians standing nearby killing twenty-seven and injuring many more. Abdul Ghani Lone, a prominent All Party Hurriyat Conference leader, was assassinated by an unidentified gunmen during a memorial rally in Srinagar.
The assassination resulted in wide-scale demonstrations against the Indian occupied-forces for failing to provide enough security cover for Mr. A car bomb exploded near an armoured Indian Army vehicle in the famous Church Lane area in Srinagar killing four Indian Army personnel, one civilian and the suicide bomber. Terrorist group Hizbul Mujahideenclaimed responsibility for the attack.
A terrorist attack on 29 July at Srinigar 's city centre, Budshah Chowk, killed two and left more than 17 people injured.
Most of those injured were media journalists. No Terrorist group claimed responsibility for the attack. A terrorist attack by four heavily armed terrorists on 18 Septembernear the town of Uri in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, killed 18 and left more than 20 people injured.
It was reported as "the deadliest attack on security forces in Kashmir in two decades". India blamed Pakistan for carrying out the attacks, an allegation which Pakistan strongly denied and one that brought both nations to the brink of a nuclear confrontation in — However, international peace efforts ensured the cooling of tensions between the two nuclear-capable nations.
The plane was hijacked on 24 December approximately one hour after take off and was taken to Amritsar airport and then to Lahore in Pakistan. After refueling the plane took off for Dubai and then finally landed in KandaharAfghanistan.
Under intense media pressure, New Delhi complied with the hijackers' demand and freed Maulana Masood Azhar from its captivity in return for the freedom of the Indian passengers on the flight.
The decision, however, cost New Delhi dearly. Maulana, who is believed to be hiding in Karachilater became the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammedan organisation which has carried out several terrorist acts against Indian security forces in Kashmir. The Fort houses an Indian military unit and a high-security interrogation cell used both by the Central Bureau of Investigation and the Indian Army.
The terrorists successfully breached the security cover around the Red Fort and opened fire at the Indian military personnel on duty killing two of them on spot. The attack was significant because it was carried out just two days after the declaration of the cease-fire between India and Pakistan. The attack was carried out on 25 Septemberjust few days after state elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir. Two identical letters found on both the terrorists claimed that the attack was done in retaliation for the deaths of thousands of Muslims during the Gujarat riots.
Though no terrorist group claimed responsibility for the attacks, Mumbai Police and RAW suspected Lashkar-e-Toiba 's hand in the twin blasts. Before the terrorists could reach the main disputed sitethey were shot down by Indian security forces.
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- Pathways to a catastrophic India-Pakistan nuclear war
- Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts
One Hindu worshipper and two policemen were injured during the incident. This was the first major military standoff between India and Pakistan since the Kargil War in The military buildup was initiated by India responding to a Indian Parliament attack and the Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly attack.
At least 68 people were killed, mostly Pakistani civilians but also some Indian security personnel and civilians.Cold Start Doctrine : India seeks to upset Pakistani Nuclear Threat
The sole surviving gunman Ajmal Kasab who was arrested during the attacks was found to be a Pakistani national. This fact was acknowledged by Pakistani authorities. Islamabad resisted the claims and demanded evidence.
India provided evidence in the form of interrogations, weapons, candy wrappers, Pakistani Brand Milk Packets, and telephone sets. They also said that, given the sophistication of the attacks, the perpetrators "must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan". India and weapons of mass destructionPakistan and weapons of mass destructionand nuclear race India has a long history of development of nuclear weapons.
InIndia's nuclear program was aimed at the development of nuclear weapons, with Indira Gandhi carefully overseeing the development of weapons. Starting preparations for a nuclear test inIndia finally exploded its first nuclear bomb in Pokhran test range, codename Smiling Buddhain No official announcements of such cold tests were made by Pakistan government. Ina mutual understanding was reached between the two countries in which each pledged not to attack nuclear facilities.
Agreements on cultural exchanges and civil aviation were also initiated, also in Pokhran-II which invited Pakistan to follow the latter's step and performed its own atomic tests see: Talks and other confidence building measures After the war, Pakistan and India made slow progress towards the normalisation of relations.
They signed the Simla Agreementby which India would return all Pakistani personnel over 90, and captured territory in the west, and the two countries would "settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations.
The Prime Ministers of Pakistan and India met twice and the foreign secretaries conducted three rounds of talks. In Junethe foreign secretaries identified eight "outstanding issues" around which continuing talks would be focused. The conflict over the status of Kashmir, referred by India as Jammu and Kashmiran issue since Independence, remains the major stumbling block in their dialogue. It however refuses to abide by the previous part of the resolution, which calls for it to vacate all territories occupied.
India–Pakistan relations - Wikipedia
In Septemberthe talks broke down over the structure of how to deal with the issues of Kashmir, and peace and security. Pakistan advocated that the issues be treated by separate working groups. India responded that the two issues be taken up along with six others on a simultaneous basis. Attempts to restart dialogue between the two nations were given a major boost by the February meeting of both Prime Ministers in Lahore and their signing of three agreements.
A subsequent military coup in Pakistan that overturned the democratically elected Nawaz Sharif government in October of the same year also proved a setback to relations. The talks fell through. If India were to attack, Pakistan may possibly be sliced into two portions on its longitudinal axis, south of its own Punjab province. In fact, Pakistan is a narrow country and most of the industrial centres and major cities situate unfortunately close to the Indian border, where there are no geographical impediments such as a major river or a mountain range to slow advancing forces Smith, The primary concerns and anxieties of the international community about the nuclear tests were based on two arguments, the potential to undermine the non-proliferation regime and the possibility of developing Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint Mudiam, For India and Pakistan, there might be a number of factors that enabled them to acquire nuclear weapons.
It is also sure to mention that all the factors are bound to portray every reason in the name of national security Balakrishnan, Among them, the power asymmetry, the urgent need of self-reliance to safeguard its national security and the aspiration to become a greater power are the most important factors that drove both countries to the path of nuclear proliferation.
Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts - Wikipedia
In relation to the command and control structure, the draft report further states that after nuclear weapons are inducted into the armed forces, the Prime Minister would have the authority to release them for use Rajain, Indian intention is to use its deterrence simply to give pause to any would-be attacker or black-mailer Chellaney, In the early s, Dr.
He harboured a vision on seeing India becoming the sixth member of the nuclear club Smith, FromIndia started receiving necessary funds for its nuclear research and nuclear energy development under the auspices of the Department of Atomic Energy Rajain, In JanuaryNehru announced that if adequate resource were diverted, India could make atomic bomb in three to four years Menon, InIndia succeeded in operating Apsara, its first nuclear reactor.
The development of nuclear power generation further advanced steadily with the technical assistance from the United States and Canada.
The Canadian-Indian Reactor, U. CIRUS the second research on heavy reactor began operating in while the Trombay plutonium reprocessing plant was constructed in April Izuyama and Ogawa, India considered that while nuclear science and technology was common intellectual property, the use of atomic energy was just a choice of sovereign state Rajain, InNehru announced that although India could make the bomb in two years, it chose not to do so as he did not think an atomic bomb could help India in any of its problems at that time Menon, Politicians in northern India who had strong anti-Chinese feelings and atomic energy scientists with strong techno-nationalistic intentions, maintained that India should carry out its own nuclear tests to counter China Izuyama and Ogawa, From that time onward India began militarizing its nuclear program Rajain, Although India decisively won the third Indo-Pakistan war ofthe actions of India were said to be greatly constrained by the three nuclear powers, the U.
However, the statement should be referred to as the option policy which means that India would continue its weaponization provided that there is a new strategic threat Izuyama and Ogawa, It is said that Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi officially gave permission for the development of nuclear weapons in Izuyama and Ogawa, Raja Menon, a retired Rear Admiral from Indian Navy argues that if Pakistan had not made the nuclear bomb first, India would have never needed a nuclear arsenal against Pakistan Menon, Dixit mentioned that if the Indian initial request to nuclear power states for nuclear guarantee had received positive responses, India would not have gone for a nuclear program.
Thus, it is arguable that the nuclearization of Pakistan facilitated Indian nuclear development. Department of Defence believes that India has both the ability of manufacturing complete sets of components for plutonium-based weapons and a small stockpile of such components.
Estimates on the number of nuclear warheads vary from a few to Some believe that India possesses around nuclear weapons stored in component form Squassoni, As inthe Federation of American Scientists estimated that India has a stockpile of around nuclear warheads Kristensen, India is expanding its stockpile and most believe that India probably can deploy a few nuclear weapons within a few days to a week and can deliver these weapons with fighter aircraft.
Soviet-origin MiG Flogger fleet combat radius with external fuel tanks of kmwere also undergoing an upgrade in Kristensen and Norris, As inIndia had three types of land-based missiles that may be operational: The Prithvi could reach almost all parts of Pakistan posing major security risks Perkovich, Agni-I missile with more than km range was deployed with the th Missile Group in Kristensen and Norris, It was deployed with the th Missile Group in Kristensen and Norris, Pakistan has pledged no-first-use only against non-nuclear-weapon states but has not ruled out first-use against a nuclear-armed adversary, such as India Lamont and Bukhari, Pakistan at first sought nuclear program for civilian use.
Under this scheme, the Nuclear Research Laboratory was set up in with the aim of providing research facilities to students Rajain, On 11th Augustthe Pakistani government signed an agreement with the United States on cooperation concerning the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
In the meantime, Indian Prime Minister Shastri stated in response to the Chinese nuclear test of Octoberthat he was in favour of developing nuclear weapons for peaceful purposes. In addition, the humiliating loss of East Pakistan in the third Indo-Pakistan war of triggered a political decision to embark upon nuclear weapons program. Bhutto called a meeting of eminent Pakistani scientists in January in which he announced his desire to make Pakistan a nuclear weapons state and urged his scientists to help him achieve his aim, if possible, within three years Dixit, Pakistan argued that there was no difference between peaceful nuclear explosion and a nuclear development.
Despite sanctions and embargos, Pakistan was able to access into the market of nuclear technology for its nuclear program. Pakistan sought uranium enrichment technology and missile technology from many sources, including Europe, China and North Korea Squassoni, Moreover, Pakistan had requested Libya, Saudi Arabia and Iraq to fund its nuclear weapon program between and Dixit, Among them, it was reported that China may have helped Pakistan nuclear weapons design and become the main supplier for Pakistan nuclear weapons program Burr, Pakistan nuclear programme boosted up with noteworthy contributions by Abdul Qadeer Khan, a metallurgist who returned to Pakistan from Europe in Izuyama and Ogawa, Only three years later, the embargo on aid was lifted.
There was also a report that a Pakistani nuclear device was tested at the Chinese testing site at Lop Nor in the western province of Xinjiang in Dixit, Inthe United States concluded that Islamabad had acquired the capability to assemble a first-generation nuclear device with technical and material assistances from China Shadid-ur-Rehman, Khan and Pakistani Foreign Secretary Shahryar Khan confirmed on 8 February that Pakistan was a state capable of building a nuclear weapon.
India also agreed that Pakistan had a nuclear bomb Menon, As a result, the United States suspended its economic and military aid and enacted sanctions in order to prevent Pakistan from developing nuclear weapons.
India-Pakistan tensions and the threat of nuclear war
Despite all these sanctions and international condemnation, Pakistan launched its first nuclear test two weeks after Indian nuclear tests in Pakistan responded to Indian nuclear tests by launching six tests at the Chagai Hills test site on May 28 and 30, near the Iranian border in Baluchistan justifying that Pakistan had to restore the strategic balance with India Wirsing, Khan, the Pakistani bomb was ready in with cold tests done in but he denied testing in China Menon, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced that Pakistan had successfully conducted nuclear tests.
He later declared that whether the country was recognized as a nuclear weapons state or not, it was in fact, a nuclear power. For Pakistan it was necessary to demonstrate that Pakistan too had a capability comparable to that of India. Moreover, Pakistan would increase its dependency on nuclear weapons, since it believes that nuclear weapons compensate for conventional inferiority. InPakistan has been reportedly continued to produce Highly-Enriched Uranium HEU for weapons at a rate of and kg per year, an amount sufficient for warheads Kristensen and Norris, ; Norris and Kristensen, Some observers estimate that Pakistan has highly enriched uranium and a small amount of plutonium for about 60 nuclear weapons Kristensen and Norris, In addition to its uranium enrichment program, Pakistan has also pursued plutonium-based program since the s with Chinese assistance Menon, As such, most believe that Pakistan possesses weapons of highly enriched uranium and 20 to 60 plutonium bombs in Mishra, Pakistan has three means of delivering nuclear weapons: Currently, five types of Pakistani ballistic missiles are thought to be nuclear-capable, the Hatf-II Abdali which is a ballistic missile with more than km range introduced inthe solid fuel Hatf-III Ghaznavi derived from the Chinese M with a range of km introduced inHatf-IV Shaheen-1 derived from the Chinese M-9 with a range of km introduced inHatf-V Ghauri with a km range introduced in and Haft-IX Shaheen-2 with a range of more than 2, km introduced in Tkacik, Pakistan is believed to have 12 and 15 units of the Hatf-VI Shaheen-2 which has a range between 2, and 2, km allowing it to threaten almost all of India.
Pakistan also launched other long distance and nuclear capable Abdali missiles with 2, km range Hilali, Reports also indicate that Pakistan developed two nuclear-capable cruise missiles, the Hatf-VII Babur, with ground, sea and air-launched versions with a range of km in and the Hatf-VIII Raad with a range of km in Karr and Nikitin, As for fighter planes capable of carrying nuclear bombs, Pakistan purchased a total of 40 FA and FB aircrafts from the United States during the period from It is suspected of having modified, approximately 32 Fs to deliver nuclear weapons within a range of 1, km, most likely carry a single bomb on the centreline pylon.
In addition, Pakistan has equipped itself with two more nuclear-capable fighter planes, the France-made Mirage-V approximately 2, km range Izuyama and Ogawa, Reports estimate that although Pakistan may have fewer nuclear warheads than India, it possesses more effective and deployable delivery system both in terms of aircraft and missile Dixit, The politico-military supports that Pakistan enjoyed off and on from the United States and almost continuously from China, since the s has enabled Pakistan to reduce the power asymmetry with India to some extent Paul, During the Cold war period, India and Pakistan were involved in conflicts.
Following the first Indo-Pakistan war ofPakistan decided to foster a closer relationship with the United States in order to achieve a strong external equalizer against the threats to its national security Khan, Pakistan wanted to strengthen its defence capability but it lacked resources and as such it turned to the United States to receive material and moral support Soherwordi, During the s and early s, Pakistan received substantial amounts of weapons and economic aid from the United States McMahon, The latter became closer to India and as a consequence, India enjoyed the Soviet support over Kashmir issue.
The Soviet leaders openly supported the Indian claim and declared Kashmir as an integral part of India in November Khan, Thus, Pakistan was unable to achieve proper solution to the Kashmir issue under the UN Resolutions due to the strong opposition of the Soviet Union. As a stronger state compared to Pakistan, India was less in need of a formal ally and capability improvement to counter its nemesis. Moreover, the Sino-Indian war of demonstrated that India could not compete properly against China.